Osnaživanje energetske tranzicije u sektoru domaćinstva u Srbiji: Integrativni pristup / Strengthening the Energy Transition in the Household Sector in Serbia: An Integrative Approach

Energija, ekonomija, ekologija, 2, XXV (2023) (стр 1- 9)

АУТОР(И) / AUTHOR(S): Boban Pavlović

Е-АДРЕСА / E-MAIL: boban.pavlovic@rgf.bg.ac.rs

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DOI: 10.46793/EEE23-2.01P

САЖЕТАК / ABSTRACT:

Glavni cilj istraživanja bio je da se razvije metodološki pristup koji bi podržao proces energetskog planiranja tranzicije u grejanju domaćinstava, uzimajući u obzir specifičnosti ovog sektora. Kako bi se procenili mogući tokovi energetske tranzicije u grejanju domaćinstava i analizirali politički instrumenti za ubrzanje ovog procesa, razvijen je simulacioni model zasnovan na agentima (Agent Based Model – ABM). Simulacioni model je primenjen na slučaju energetske tranzicije u sektoru domaćinstva u Srbiji. Prethodno su kroz istraživanje prikupljeni podaci o grejanju domaćinstava potrebni za kreiranje ulaznih baza podataka za simulacioni model. Rezultati dobijeni primenom simulacionog modela prikazuju promenu strukture sistema grejanja u domaćinstvima do 2050. godine, u zavisnosti od odabranih političkih instrumenata za podršku procesu tranzicije. Integracijom istraživanja o grejanju domaćinstava, ABM simulacionog modela i standardnih alata za energetsko modeliranje, razvijen je sveobuhvatni koncept za podršku energetskom planiranju. Ovom integracijom su obezbeđeni uslovi za analizu efekata tranzicije u domaćinstvima na nivou ukupnog energetskog sistema države, regiona ili lokalne zajednice. Predloženi integrativni pristup dozvoljava da se projektuje buduća potrošnja energije za grejanje, koja proizilazi iz ponašanja domaćinstava, trendova demografskog razvoja, trendova energetske rehabilitacije objekata i dr. Rezultati dobijeni u slučaju sektora domaćinstva u Srbiji ukazuju na značajan potencijal za postizanje ušteda u potrošnji energije u grejanju domaćinstava ukoliko se postojeći zastareli grejni uređaji zamene održivijim tehnologijama, pre svega toplotnim pumpama, ali i ako se investira u energetsku sanaciju stambenih objekata. Predloženi pristup omogućava ranu procenu efekata neograničenog broja mera podrške i mehanizama za ubrzanje energetske tranzicije u sektoru domaćinstva.

КЉУЧНЕ РЕЧИ / KEYWORDS:

energetska tranzicija, energetsko planiranje, energetsko modeliranje, obnovljivi izvori energije, domaćinstva, ponašanje potrošača

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