АУТОР / AUTHOR(S): Dragan Burić 
, Jovan Mihajlović , Vladan Ducić
DOI: 10.46793/CSGE5.10DB
САЖЕТАК / ABSTRACT:
Climate change is a current topic, both in science and in public opinion. This paper will analyze changes in temperature and precipitation in Montenegro during the instrumental period and projections until the end of the 21st century. For the purposes of this study, the percentile method was applied to daily temperature and precipitation data. In the study of contemporary climate change, the World Meteorological Organization recommends this method because it uses the same empirical distribution of daily extreme temperatures and precipitation, allowing for comparisons of results from different locations worldwide. The results showed a significant warming trend in Montenegro, as the number of cold days and nights (Tx10p and Tn10p) decreased, while the number of hot days and nights (Tx90p and Tn90p) increased. Regarding precipitation, during the observed 60-year period (1961–2020), the trend in the number of very wet, moderately wet, moderately dry, and very dry days (R95p, R75p, R25p, and R5p) was minor and mostly statistically insignificant. However, despite the negligible changes in precipitation percentile indices, it should be noted that Montenegro has experienced mild aridization over the past 60 years. Regarding temperature projections, data from three Regional Climate Models (ALADIN, REMO, and CCLM4) for the period 2021–2100, according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, were used. The results indicate that the period 2021–2050 is expected to be even warmer than before, with further warming projected for the period 2051–2100, with the warmest conditions expected towards the end of the 21st century, i.e., in the period 2081–2100. For precipitation, results from ALADIN, HIRHAM, and RACMO projections for Podgorica were used. Predicted changes in the examined precipitation parameters until 2100 are mostly insignificant. In conclusion, the results have shown high model agreement for temperature, while precipitation projections are more complex, with qualitative and quantitative differences visible in modeling future precipitation changes. Overall, significant warming implies increased water evaporation, which, coupled with additional aridization (albeit mild), may pose challenges to the functioning of natural systems, human life, and activities.
КЉУЧНЕ РЕЧИ / KEYWORDS:
temperature; precipitation; observed changes; projections; Montenegro