АУТОР / AUTHOR(S): Nina Nikolova 
, Simeon Matev , Petko Bozhkov
DOI: 10.46793/CSGE5.07NN
САЖЕТАК / ABSTRACT:
In recent years, various regions worldwide have experienced an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including cold and heat waves, floods, droughts, forest fires, and storms. Climate models predict that many areas, particularly in Southern Europe, including Bulgaria, will face heightened drought and longer dry periods, along with higher temperatures. Climate change and weather-related disasters profoundly impact agriculture, one of the most important sectors of Bulgaria’s economy.
This study provides an overview of regional climate change trends in Bulgaria, focusing on extreme weather events such as frost occurrences, hailstorms, thunderstorms, heat waves, and droughts. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation patterns lead to stress on crops such as wheat, maize, and sunflowers, which are critical to Bulgaria’s agriculture. The survey results among Bulgarian farmers show that Bulgarian agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to droughts and climate variability. In addition to drought, Bulgarian farmers report an increase in extreme weather events such as hailstorms, irregular precipitation patterns, and reduced snow cover during winter. Furthermore, the distinction between the four seasons has become less pronounced, with a notably shorter spring season.
This research includes a detailed case study on the impact of extreme drought on major crops in Bulgaria. This impact was assessed using a correlation analysis between the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), a key drought indicator, and average crop yields. The analysis focused on crops that are highly dependent on moisture availability, such as maize and sunflower, in addition to Bulgaria’s primary cereal crop, wheat. The findings indicate that droughts significantly reduce crop yields, especially in regions reliant on rain-fed agriculture.
Bulgarian farms are implementing adaptive measures such as adjusting sowing dates and cultivating drought-resistant crop varieties. However, these strategies are not always sufficient to address the challenges posed by climate change, as it remains difficult to predict the alternating patterns of dry and wet years. The results of the study emphasize the importance of continued research, policy support, and investment in adaptation strategies to ensure the resilience of the agricultural sector.
КЉУЧНЕ РЕЧИ / KEYWORDS:
extreme drought, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, agriculture, Bulgaria
ПРОЈЕКАТ / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
This work was also supported by the National Science Fund of Bulgaria, under the project Extreme droughts and their impact on agriculture in selected continental climates of Europe, Contract KP-Danube-1/18.07.2023.