UTICAJ MIKRO-MREŽA NA OPERATIVNU REZERVU ELEKTROENERGETSKOG SISTEMA

Флексибилност електроенергетског система / Зборник CIGRE (2023).  (стр 1261-1276)

АУТОР(И) / AUTHOR(S): Suad Halilčević

Е-АДРЕСА / E-MAIL:  suad.halilcevic@untz.ba

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DOI:  10.46793/CIGRE36.1261H

САЖЕТАК / ABSTRACT:

Sa sve većim učešćem obnovljivih izvora energije u proizvodnji električne energije odgovor na pitanje potrebnog kapaciteta operativne rezerve u elektroenergetskim sistemima postaje sve komplikovaniji. Sama činjenica varijabilnosti pogonske energije (Sunce, vjetar, voda) u fotonaponskim elektranama, vjetroelektranama i malim hidroelektranama čini potrebni kapacitet operativne rezerve promjenljivim. Kako je sam elektroenergetski sistem stohastičan, uključivanje obnovljivih izvora energije u rad elektroenergetskih sistema još više naglašava njegovu stohastičku karakteristiku. Iz tog razloga, potreba za operativnom rezervom u elektro mikromreža, najbolje se rješava pomoću alata vjerovatnoće, odnosno statistike i procjene. Pitanje operativne rezerve u elektroenergetskom sistemu istraživano je Bayesian-ovom statistikom, koja povezuje istovremenu pojavu slučajne varijable (dostupni kapacitet obnovljivih izvora energije u mikromrežama) sa statističkom varijablom (opterećenje u mikromrežama). Rezultat ovog istraživanja je vjerovatnoća deficita ili viška raspoložive energije u mikromrežama, a posljedica te vjerovatnoće je vjerovatnoća potrebe i stepena angažovanja operativne rezerve u elektroenergetskom sistemu pomoću sistemskih termoelektrana i/ili hidroelektrana.

КЉУЧНЕ РЕЧИ / KEYWORDS:

Elektroenergetski sistem, Mikromreža, Operativna rezerva, Bayesian vjerovatnoća

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