THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL CRISES ON FOOD PRODUCTION AND PRICES WORLDWIDE

VI international scientific conference Sustainable agriculture and rural development, 11-12. 12. 2025, Belgrade  [pp. 423-432]

 

AUTHOR(S) / AUTOR(I): Suzana Balaban , Dejan Živkov , Anton Puškarić

 
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.46793/zbIEP25.423B

ABSTRACT / SAŽETAK:

Since late 2021, the world has been experiencing the fastest increase in food prices in the past fifty years. Numerous studies indicate that price dynamics and productivity trends often diverge, resulting in a negative relationship between them. Among the many influencing factors, two major global events have had a particularly strong impact on food markets and stock levels, with far-reaching consequences for production and international trade: the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine.

The pandemic introduced a high level of uncertainty regarding overall food production and international trade flows. Countries around the world implemented restrictive measures including travel limitations, border controls, and quarantines which severely disrupted food supply chains. In 2021, the meat production and processing sector faced significant dificulties: obstacles in procuring feed, restrictions on animal transport, reduced access to labor and professional services, and disruptions in the supply of meat and meat products. Prices fluctuated due to shifts in supply and demand: panic buying at the beginning of the pandemic increased demand, while reduced consumption in the hospitality sector shifted preferences toward meats more commonly consumed at home (poultry and pork), and away from beef and lamb. When it comes to cereals, the price of rice increased early in 2020, only to decline after the global economic slowdown and the lifting of export bans. As the world economy recovered, rice prices returned to pre-pandemic levels, reflecting expectations of good harvests and stable production. In contrast, prices of wheat, corn, and soybeans initially fell in the first half of 2020, then rose sharply in the second half of the year. The recovery of demand particularly from China played a crucial role, while wheat prices were additionally driven up by poor harvests caused by droughts in the United States, Canada, the European Union, Turkey, and Iran. The upward trend in corn and soybean prices slowed in the second half of 2021, when forecasts indicated record production in the United States and Brazil. Overall, strong global demand was the key driver behind rising international agricultural prices, despite disruptions within supply chains.

KEYWORDS / KLJUČNE REČI: 

Food, prices, crises, COVID-19 pandemic

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / PROJEKAT:

Paper is a part of research financed by the MSTDI RS, agreed in decision no. 451-03-136/2025-03/200009 from 4.2.2025.

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