DEVELOPMENT OF A CEREAL SUPPLY MODEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA USING THE ARIMA APPROACH I

Cereal production represents a strategic sector of the Croatian economy, for which the country is recognized in the international market. Due to extensive arable land and high-quality soils, crop yields per unit area are above average. The objective of this study was to analyze historical cereal production and forecast future supply using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Time series for the period 2018–2023 were examined, and statistical and econometric analyses were applied to identify variations and deviations within the data. Based on these analyses, projections for the six-year period 2024–2029 were generated. The results indicated expected positive trends in the supply of wheat, maize, barley, and oats, providing valuable insights for planning and optimizing cereal production in Croatia.

KEYWORDS / КЉУЧНЕ РЕЧИ: 

Crop production, regressive supply, price, ARIMA model

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / ПРОЈЕКАТ:

REFERENCES / ЛИТЕРАТУРA:

• Arsenović, Đ., Krstić, (2002). Konkurentnost poljoprivrednih gazdinstava. Beograd: Poljoprivredni fakultet Univerziteta u Beogradu i Poljoprivredni fakultet Univerziteta u Istočnom Sarajevu, pp. 111–113.
• Bašić, F., Kisić, I., Mesić, M., Butorac, A., Sabolić, M. (2002). Regionalizacija hrvatske poljoprivrede. Zagreb: Agronomski fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, 274.
• Bjelić, P. (2008). Međunarodna trgovina. Beograd, Srbija: Ekonomski fakultet, p. 123.
• Blanchard, O. (2005). Macroeconomics. Oxford: Prentice Hall, pp. 47–65.
• Bošnjak, D., Tica, N., Rodić, V. (2003). Ekonomska obeležja proizvodnje kukuruza. Zbornik radova Instituta za ratarstvo i povrtarstvo, pp. 121–130.
• Defilippis, J. (2005). Poljoprivreda i razvoj. Zagreb: Školska knjiga, p. 67. 
• Državni zavod za statistiku Republike Hrvatske. https://dzs.gov.hr/
• GRAHOVAC, P. (2004). Regionalni razvoj hrvatske poljoprivrede. Zbornik Ekonomskog fakulteta u Zagrebu, pp. 211.
• Krueger, A. O. (2009). Prospects for the global trading system. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, p. 58.
• Krugman, P. R. (2009). Međunarodna ekonomija – teorija i politika. Beograd: Data Status, p. 89.
• Ministarstvo poljoprivrede, šumarstva i ribarstva Republike Hrvatske (2024). Zeleno izvješće 2023.
• Olson, K., VU, L. (2009). Economic efficiency in farm households: trends, explanatory factors, and estimation methods. Agricultural Economics, 40(5), 587–599.
• Thomson, K. J., Davidova, S. (2014). Economic aspects of family farming in the European context. In 88th Annual Conference, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 170354, Agricultural Economics Society, p. 161.