DECARBONIZATION OF SERBIAN DISTRICT HEATING SECTOR – THE ANALYSIS OF SCENARIOS

AUTHOR(S) / АУТОР(И): Dejan Ivezić, Marija Živković, Dejan Stojanović, Boban Pavlović

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DOI: https://doi.org//10.46793/EEP25.132I

ABSTRACT / САЖЕТАК:

This paper examines the decarbonization of Serbia’s district heating (DH) sector, which currently relies predominantly on fossil fuels, with renewable energy sources (RES) accounting for only 2.2% of heat production in 2023. Guided by Serbia’s Energy Strategy and National Energy and Climate Plan, two development pathways are analyzed: the Basic and the Advanced Scenario. The Basic Scenario anticipates gradual integration of biomass, heat pumps, and solar energy, leading to a 54.3% RES share and a 49% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The Advanced Scenario assumes stronger policy and financial support, enabling earlier adoption of biomethane, hydrogen, and electric boilers, achieving a 76.6% RES share and a 74% emission reduction by 2050. Required investments are estimated to be between 1.1 and €1.6 billion. The study emphasizes the need for coherent policy, technological innovation, and targeted financing to ensure a sustainable, low-carbon DH sector in Serbia.

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