37. саветовање CIGRE Србија (2025) СИГУРНОСТ, СТАБИЛНОСТ, ПОУЗДАНОСТ И RESILIENCE ЕЛЕКТРОЕНЕРГЕТСКОГ СИСТЕМА МУЛТИСЕКТОРСКО ПОВЕЗИВАЊЕ У ЕНЕРГЕТИЦИ И ПРИВРЕДИ – C1-11
АУТОР(И) / AUTHOR(S): Андрија Павићевић, Небојша Вучинић, Владан Ристић, Јелена Ђокић, Соња Симовић
DOI: 10.46793/CIGRE37.C1.11
САЖЕТАК / ABSTRACT:
The electricity consumption forecast is a factor that must be taken into account when planning the development of the power transmission system on the longer time horizon. By analyzing the projected consumption, it is possible to assess the need for new investments as well as potential issues that could arise in the system if these investments are not implemented according to the planned schedule. The method described in this paper considers three categories of consumption separately. The consumption of electric vehicles is based on the expected number of vehicles and their average annual consumption, while each electricity consumer that will be connected to the transmission system is accounted for in accordance with the applicable Connection Study. The category with the largest share in total consumption is the demand of the distribution system. All individual consumers are included this consumption, regardless of type (households, industry, and the tertiary sector). For this consumption category, the method is based on establishing a relation between historical values of annual distribution system consumption over the past 15 years and relevant factors (gross domestic product, population, average minimum and maximum daily temperatures). All forecasted values were obtained using historical data and the Forecast Sheet tool in the Excel software package. This tool is based on the Exponential Triple Smoothing algorithm, which smooths out minor deviations in previous data sequences by identifying patterns. The forecasting results showed a stable, slight increase in total consumption despite the stagnation of distribution system consumption. The number of electric vehicles and energy consumers connected to the transmission system is the main reason for the emerging trend, as they represent a completely new form of consumption in the system.
КЉУЧНЕ РЕЧИ / KEYWORDS:
System development plan, Energy consumption
ПРОЈЕКАТ / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT:
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