ANALYSIS OF SOILS AND STRUCTURES DURING DYNAMIC LOADING: DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC METHODS

Geotehnički aspekti građevinarstva i zemljotresno inženjerstvo 2025, Vrnjačka Banja, 15 – 17. oktobar 2025. (pp. 1-6) 

АУТОР(И) / AUTHOR(S): Boris Jeremić 

 

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DOI: 10.46793/GEOAG25.001J

САЖЕТАК / ABSTRACT:

Engineers play a vital role in the development and maintenance of the built environment. Through engineering analysis, they design and assess infrastructure systems to enhance safety, performance, and long-term economic value. When bridges, buildings, power plants and dams are designed, constructed, and maintained to endure for long time, the benefits to society are substantial.

Modern engineering analysis must account for uncertainties in infrastructure response, which stem from two principal sources: epistemic uncertainty, arising from simplifications in modeling, and aleatory uncertainty, due to variability in loads and material behavior.

This work presents a brief overview of work on addressing both types of uncertainty in engineering analysis. Epistemic uncertainty is addressed by constructing a hierarchy of analytical and numerical models with increasing levels of fidelity. This approach enables the quantification of the impact of modeling assumptions, simplifications, and helps reduce their influence on analysis results.

Aleatory uncertainty is treated through the development of a Stochastic Elastic-Plastic Finite Element Method (SEPFEM). This method enables both forward and backward prop- agation of uncertainty. Forward propagation yields full probabilistic distribution functions (PDF) and cumulative distribution functions (CDF)/fragilities for displacements, forces, stresses, and strains by accounting for variability in input loads and material properties. Backward propagation, or global sensitivity analysis, identifies how uncertainties in inputs affect the uncertainties of key response variables such as displacements and accelerations.

Illustrative examples are presented to demonstrate the application of the developed methods and analysis techniques.

КЉУЧНЕ РЕЧИ / KEYWORDS:

FEM analysis, Soils, Structures, Interaction, Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainty

ПРОЈЕКАТ / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT:              

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