АУТОР / AUTHOR(S): Teodora Popović 
, Nina B. Ćurčić , Snežana Đurđić , Gorica Stanojević , Marko Raković
DOI: 10.46793/CSGE5.24TP
САЖЕТАК / ABSTRACT:
Identifying geographic areas with habitats suitable for the presence of priority species is of essential importance in conservation planning. A useful tool to identify these areas is a species distribution modelling (SDM), which is a method that defines statistical relationship between species records and environmental variables in the localities where the species is present. To test the possibility of applying this method in conservation planning, this study focused on the Three-toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus (Linnaeus, 1758) (Piciformes: Picidae) because it is a glacial relict on the Balkan Peninsula that is distributed only in montane coniferous and mixed forests with significant amounts of dead wood. As a habitat specialist, it is vulnerable to environmental changes, making it a suitable indicator species for forests with natural properties. These forests are threatened by modern forestry which removes the dead wood necessary for the Three-toed Woodpecker’s survival, and land-use changes, such as urbanisation of mountains. Moreover, as a glacial relict, this species is threatened by global warming which represents a challenge for its future survival. The results show that highly and moderately suitable habitats (habitat categories essential for specialist species) have the smallest areas in total suitability of the Balkan Peninsula. Along with their limited presence, what makes conservation of these habitats more difficult is the fact that their distribution is mostly fragmented. For these reasons, ensuring their preservation and connectivity of given habitats should become a conservation priority. Geographic areas deemed important by SDM, such as the Dinarides mountain range in our case study, can be used as a focus for further research and field trips, thereby saving both time and resources. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used to assess the impacts of climate change on species distribution by creating future projections using global climate models. Distribution models can also be used to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas. These examples demonstrate that using SDM can produce the knowledge necessary for conservation, which makes this method useful in nature conservation and planning.
КЉУЧНЕ РЕЧИ / KEYWORDS:
habitat conservation; conservation planning; species distribution modelling; Balkan Peninsula