АУТОР / AUTHOR(S): Dragan Burić 
, Jovan Mihajlović , Ivana Penjišević
DOI: 10.46793/CSGE5.14db
САЖЕТАК / ABSTRACT:
Lake Skadar is the largest limnological feature on the Balkan Peninsula, and in Montenegro, it holds the status of a national park and is listed on the Ramsar list as an extremely important wetland area. The aim of the study is to analyze the trend of changes in the water levels of Lake Skadar and determine the possible influence of atmospheric and oceanic oscillations on the hydroclimate of the observed area over the past seven decades. The results obtained have shown a significant trend of decreasing mean monthly water levels of Lake Skadar, consequently affecting its seasonal and annual levels. It has also been determined that in the last 15 years, Lake Skadar has experienced both its highest (2010) and lowest (2017) water levels in the entire instrumental period (since 1948). Therefore, in the long term, the water level is decreasing, while in the short term, the frequency of extreme events is increasing. The reasons for the alarming decrease in the water level of Lake Skadar should be sought in changes in precipitation and temperature in its basin. The research has shown a significant increase in air temperature in the lake’s basin, while there are no significant changes in precipitation. There is no doubt that the significant warming has led to increased evaporation of water from the lake and its basin. Furthermore, the results have shown that atmospheric and oceanic oscillations influence the hydroclimate of the observed area (water level, precipitation, and temperature). A statistically significant relationship between the lake’s water level, precipitation, and temperature in its basin was found in winter with AO, NAO–slp, NAO–500, MOI–1, MOI–2, WeMO, EAWR, SNAO, and SCAND. Temperature variability in summer and autumn is influenced by AMO, while the influence of EA on this parameter is felt throughout all seasons. No statistical correlation was found with any of the considered parameters with indicators of ENSO phenomenon (NINO3.4 and SOI). Regardless of the possible causes of the variability in Lake Skadar’s water levels (climate change or natural cycles), decision-makers need to take measures for sustainable management of its hydrological system.
КЉУЧНЕ РЕЧИ / KEYWORDS:
water level trend; teleconnections; Lake Skadar