International Scientific Conference Squaring the Circle : the New Global Dynamics (2026) [pp. 169-174]
AUTHOR(S) / АУТОР(И): Vladimir Ajzenhamer 
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.46793/7067.3731.169A
ABSTRACT / САЖЕТАК:
The paper seeks to explain why the post-Gaza regional order in the Middle East transitioned from a deterrence-based order to one characterized by direct escalation. It argues that the principal drivers of this transformation were the erosion of Iran’s proxy architecture and the failure of the American offshore balancing strategy, which relied on delegating the regional security burden to regional actors – primarily Israel. In this context, the Gaza War is not treated as the primary cause of the transformation of the regional order, but rather as a catalyst that accelerated already existing processes of deterrence erosion and the weakening of external balancing.