MEMBER SELECTION FROM A CLIMATE MODEL ENSEMBLE FOR CROP MODEL IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN NORTH GREECE

Climate changes and ecological sustainability in agriculture and food production in Serbia, the region and Southeastern Europe : proceedings, (pp. 84-89)

AUTHOR(S) / АУТОР(И): Melpomeni Nikou1,2, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias1, Vassilis G. Aschonitis2, Dimitris M. Papamichail3, Theodoros Mavromatis1

1Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece; 2Soil and Water Resources Institute, Hellenic Agricultural Organization (ELGO) – “DEMETER”, Thessaloniki, Greece; 3Department of Hydraulics, Soil Science and Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece

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DOI: 10.46793/MAK2025.084N

ABSTRACT / САЖЕТАК:

Climate change poses significant challenges to crops, including wheat, a crucial crop to Greek agriculture. Rising temperatures, extreme weather, and altered precipitation patterns reduce wheat yield. A region in northern Greece, known for its diverse elevation and climate, was analyzed using data from eight meteorological stations (2006-2023) and 11 EURO-CORDEX models under the RCP4.5 scenario. When the calibrated CERES-Wheat model was driven by the most suitable members, identified using the sRPI index, as compared to the whole ensemble, it improved predictions of wheat anthesis, maturity, and potential yield, thereby supporting adaptation strategies for sustainable wheat production.

KEYWORDS / КЉУЧНЕ РЕЧИ:

Ensemble model evaluation, Climate change, Wheat production, CERES-Wheat, Simulation scenarios, Greece

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / ПРОЈЕКАТ:

This research was funded by the project „Support for enhancing the operation of the National Network for Climate Change (CLIMPACT)“, National Development Program, General Secretariat of Research and Innovation (2023ΝΑ11900001 – Ν. 5201588).

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